Research on the Influencing Factors of Stock Price Fluctuations

Abstract

Stock price fluctuations are closely watched by the market. As an innovation-driven market, the STAR Market has insufficient research on its fluctuation mechanism, and the applicability of traditional financial indicators remains to be verified. This study explored the influencing factors of stock price fluctuations on the STAR Market, verified the applicability of traditional financial indicators, and examined the role of non-traditional variables. Based on 96 observations of 31 enterprises listed on the STAR Market from 2020 to 2024, this paper uses a panel fixed effect and stepwise regression model to empirically test the impact of traditional indicators such as net profit and operating cycle on stock price volatility under the premise of controlling industry and annual effects. It also introduces nontraditional variables such as R&D intensity to expand the understanding of the valuation logic of the STAR Market. The results show that net profit (β=0.952, p<0.001) and operating cycle (β=0.058, p<0.01) have a significant positive impact on stock price volatility. For every increase of 100 million yuan in net profit and every extension of the operating cycle by one day, the volatility increases by 0.95 and 0.06 percentage points, respectively. In contrast, the effects of return on net assets and asset-liability ratio were not significant (p>0.05). The model results have a high degree of fit (R²=0.994). This article provides empirical support for establishing a net profit - R&D intensity assessment framework for investors and also offers a reference for regulators to improve information disclosure. Future research can incorporate more innovative variables to deepen the study.